Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.104071 0.115167 0.126516 0.138965 0.152208 0.165851 0.180940
2025-02-02 0.085598 0.102169 0.119940 0.140295 0.162843 0.186941 0.214528
2025-02-09 0.073290 0.093554 0.116198 0.143085 0.173851 0.207684 0.247429
2025-02-16 0.062059 0.084445 0.110438 0.142316 0.179838 0.222110 0.272840
2025-02-23 0.057217 0.082046 0.111778 0.149174 0.194144 0.245723 0.308594
2025-03-02 0.052713 0.079407 0.112297 0.154617 0.206481 0.266899 0.341528
2025-03-09 0.045213 0.072113 0.106353 0.151537 0.208058 0.275003 0.358855
2025-03-16 0.038389 0.064983 0.099973 0.147320 0.207740 0.280442 0.372710
2025-03-23 0.035922 0.063547 0.100783 0.152075 0.218446 0.299184 0.402566
2025-03-30 0.033100 0.061308 0.100286 0.154948 0.226663 0.314835 0.428718
2025-04-06 0.031223 0.060253 0.101255 0.159655 0.237176 0.333346 0.458459
2025-04-13 0.028000 0.056854 0.098708 0.159436 0.241173 0.343637 0.478057
2025-04-20 0.027866 0.058443 0.103547 0.169744 0.259596 0.372946 0.522392
2025-04-27 0.025339 0.056002 0.102461 0.171882 0.267349 0.388956 0.550514
2025-05-04 0.023383 0.054309 0.102346 0.175309 0.276832 0.407273 0.581736
2025-05-11 0.020598 0.050887 0.099389 0.174514 0.280502 0.418053 0.603464
2025-05-18 0.020070 0.051400 0.102451 0.182400 0.296064 0.444395 0.645188
2025-05-25 0.019227 0.051235 0.104394 0.188636 0.309389 0.467895 0.683427
2025-06-01 0.016497 0.047189 0.099890 0.185119 0.308996 0.473207 0.698171
2025-06-08 0.013849 0.042919 0.094701 0.180296 0.306540 0.475613 0.709035
2025-06-15 0.013232 0.042735 0.096275 0.185737 0.318631 0.497496 0.745357
2025-06-22 0.012308 0.041786 0.096475 0.189021 0.327645 0.515293 0.776437
2025-06-29 0.011775 0.041634 0.098019 0.194395 0.339697 0.537264 0.813125